The question aboutthe exhaustionofthe world hydrocarbonsreservesand relatedgeopoliticalimplications continue being a burning issueof the military departments today. According to American geologist KingHubert, sooner or later the world will run out of the natural resources. In his peak theory he predicted, that the U.S. would be on the peak of oil production in 1970. Thus, having reached this year the U.S. oil productionwill decreased. The possibleshortage ofoilin the world marketcould leadtoan aggravation ofthe geopolitical situationand pushtheunstablecountries to collapse, saysItaly’sLaRepubblica. Indeed, it is obvious, that all so-called “hot spots” on the map, where the wars and conflicts take place, are the territories rich of oil. In addition, not the lastplacein the conflict plays the U.S., which makesthesituation in the world oil map very suspicious. What is more, the “color revolution” has been taken place in those countries, where there are lots of oil resources, and the U.S. all the times became a part of them, as NATO or the UN or some other organizations. For example,wewill nottake intoaccount thatnone of theoilcountriesof the CIS (Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan,and Turkmenistan) haveany revolutions.
Actually, it was very strange, when Taliban offered the USA twice in 1999 and 2001 to remove Osama Ben Laden, but the country refused to take him and judge him. Then, the question is: why the U.S. continues its War on Terror, if it didn`t want to judge the leader of this terror (Philips, 2003). All these provoke the thought whether the U.S.was indeedfighting terror, or it was just a pretext to start the war. Thus, the aim of the research is to find out to what level have US energy policy, foreign policy, and security policy merged into one and what the role in this combination plays the oil issue.
History of Fossil Fuel Exploration and Use
1.Overview of oil exploration
Since ancienttimes, people havegatheredoil from the surface of the earth(andwater).At the same timeoil isa fairlylimited application.Oncein the secondhalf of the 19thcenturythe safekerosene lampwas invented, the demand foroilhas risen dramatically.It started withthe development ofcommercial oil productionthroughdrillingwells to theoil-saturatedlayers.With the discoveryof electricity and distribution ofelectric lighting, the need forkerosene, assourceof illumination,wasreduced.At that time, the internal combustion enginewas invented, andthe rapid development ofautomobile industry began (Philips, 2003).
The historical dataof oil productioncan bedivided in two stages:
the first stage -from the beginning of oil production until1979, when thelargestoil productionwasfirstreached (3235milliontons) (Lanchester, 2007).
The secondstage started in1979and continues until now. Itwas notedthatfrom 1920to 1970,the worldoil production was increasingnot onlyevery year, but also every decade. In general, the oil productionhas grownexponentially (doubling every 10years).Since1979it has beenthe slowdownof the worldoil production.Inthe early 80’sthere even was a short-termreduction inoil production.In the future,the growth inoil productionwas resumed, butnot as rapidlyasin the first stage (Philips, 2003).
Despite thedecline inoil production inthe early 80’sand occasionallyoccurred crisis,in general,the global oil productionis growing steadily.Average annual growth ratefor the periodfrom 1970to 2010amounted to about1.5%, andthis is less than theaverage annual growth rateof world GDP. The wars for oil existedin the history since the oilwas discovered. Thus, in 1973,the war broke outin October between Arabsand Israel. Its official aim was to coverall troubles between two countries.However, during thewarthe Suez Canalwasdisabled.As a result,the transportation ofoil by tankersthrough the Suez Canalwasbreached. As a result, the entirechannel wasgenerouslyfertilizerby the mines.In addition,in 17 October 1973, all Arabcountries decidedon the “oilembargo”against theWestern countries supportingIsrael.That was thekey moment of the war.The price of oilimmediatelyjumped from$ 3to $ 12.Easilyand fastthe Arab countries setan ultimatum tothe Western countries.In the West, immediatelythe economic crisis occurred.The markets collapsed, andthe industrywas stopped.Nevertheless, the crisis and the “oil embargo” wasjustone of the stagesofan imminentfinancial crisis.In addition, thewar was inevitable itself. Itwasprogrammed bytheU.S.economic policy, and today it is a well-known fact. Actually, at any case thereshould bethe interested side in the wars and crisis. The thing is that, as a rule the U.S. has been the part of the conflicts, from what itcan beassumed that it is one of those interested parts (Lanchester, 2007).
2.Libyan Conflict
Even though the new presidenthad been elected, the U.S. policy didn`t changed, whichcan bethe obvious evidence that the oil conflictsare startedby American Transnational corporations, however the president is definitely under their control. Thus, Libya is a very rich for the oil country. Thus, it was not a surprise that in the country the Civil War was started, and that the U.S. took a great role in solving the conflict.
The Civil War, started in Libya, is the armed conflict between the forces under the control of ColonelMuammarGaddafi, who has been Libyan leader since 1969 year, and armed National Transitional Council of Libya, backed by the League of Arab States, European Union, other States and international organizations, as well as the military aviation supported by NATO. The conflict began with the riots in February 2011 that took place after the overthrow of ruling regimes in neighboring Tunisia and Egypt, and quickly took the form of the Civil War. The Colonel opponents, taking a number of cities mainly in the east, conducted the fierce battles with the army of Libya, including mercenaries from different countries. On the 5th of March, the rebels announced the creation ofthe Transitional National Council of Libya, and proclaimed it the only legitimate government (Buck, 2011).
United Nation Security Council Resolution number 1973 is the resolution, adopted by the UN Security Council on March 17th, 2011. The resolution legislates the military intervention of the foreign states in Civil War in Libya as well asthe protection ofthe civilians, and gives the right to destroy any troops posing the threat to the insurgents.
UN Security Council resolution demands immediate cease-fire and violence against the civilian population in Libya, bans all flights over Libya, except the humanitarian flights and evacuation of foreigners, authorizes any action to protect civilians, except theinputof the occupation forces, bans all flights to Libya, freezes all assets of the Libyan leadership, extends the list of Libyan officials, sanctioned by the movement and etc.
Even though the resolution seemsto bethe best way in the solving the Libyan conflict, the six month passed after the resolutionwas adopted, and the war inside the country didn`t stop. In addition, other conflicts and questions occurred. The Russian Prime-MinisterVolodymyrPutin claimed that the Security Council resolution is incomplete and flawed; moreover, the actions are very similar to those in the Medieval Ages. In fact, the resolution, according to Putin, is just a legal allowance for the invasion ofa sovereign country. What is more, the Prime-Minister is not the only person, who thinks like this.
On the eve, the Arab League, which previously had supportedthe introduction ofno-fly zone in the skies over Libya, criticized the operation. According to the General SecretaryAmreMoussa, the previous discussions about the resolution don`t correspond the today’s usage of them. According to the Libyan authorities, during the military operations many civilian facilities, including hospitals,were destroyed. About 60 peoplewere killedand more than 150 wounded; most of them were civilians. However, the coalition denies information about civilian casualties (Mohamed, 2006).
What is more, there are still lots of questions about the humanitarian intervention, whether it is the right way in solving the conflicts inside the country and whether it is, indeed, reasonable and legitimate international concept.
3.Iran`s New Conflict
Thus, soon the new Iran and the U.S. conflict can occurforoil. The United Statesresponded to theIranthreatto shutthe Strait of Hormuz. In the event thatIranattemptsto blockthe Strait of Hormuz, the U.S.will takethe forceresponse,claims the television channelCBSairedthe U.S. DefenseLeonPanetta. “Ourpositionisveryclear -the U.S. would nottolerate the overlap ofHormuzirrigation.Thisis thered linethat cannotbe moved,and we will respondto it”- saidPanetta,”Interfax”. According to the newspaperVIEW, the Iraniannewspaper “Khorasan” referring toa seniormilitaryIslamicRevolutionary Guards Corps(IRGC),AshrafAliNouri, wrote thatifthe EUdecidedto ban the importof Iranian oil, Tehranwould block theStrait of Hormuz. Strait of Hormuzis away out of thePersian Gulf tothe Gulf of Omanand tothe Arabian Sea.Strait ofHormuz isthe maintransport corridorthrough which theoil, producedin the Gulf countries,is transportedabroad, including the U.S. (Shivkumar, 2012).
According to the Ministerof Economy and FinanceShamseddinHosseini, the EUcan consider such actionsas”economicwar”against Iran.In turn,MohsenGamsari, the Head ofthe International Department ofthe National IranianOil Company, believesthat the sanctionsagainst theIranian oilwould leadto a sharp increase in the priceof hydrocarbons, which will negatively affect theentire global economy (Shivkumar, 2012)..
4.Sudan andSouthern Sudan Conflict
In Africa,continuingthe military confrontationbetween Sudan andSouthern Sudan,Khartoum madeseveral attempts tofree thecapturedsouthernersHegligoil-bearing area, but theywere unsuccessful.Flared up conflict hadattractedthe attention ofthe international community,whosesympathieswere highly controversial. Washington has alreadycondemned theSouthSudan for military aggression, butthere is speculation thatit was onlyoral reprimand.Actually,independenceof South Sudanwas receivedthanksto the efforts ofthe United States and itis hard to imaginethat Washingtonwas notreadyforthis development.Perhapsthe war started due tothe U.S. support, since earlier,Washington had sentthe military advisers to Southern Sudan.Not once the rumorsappeared that theU.S. and itsWestern alliessuppliedthe weaponsto Juba. However, it is knownthatSudanis activelybuying arms fromRussia and Chinauntil the UNembargo onsuch shipments is cancelled (Lanchester, 2007).
The new conflict for oil has appeared and again the U.S. gives the protection to one of the conflicting countries.
Peak Oil Theory
- Basic principles
MarionKing Hubbert, an Americangeophysicist, whoin1956 quantitativelydescribed thebehavior ofoilandspoke at a conferenceof the AmericanPetroleum Institutewhere he introduced the “peakof oil” theory. According to the theory, oil production inthe continental U.S.(excludingAlaska)has peakedin the early1970s, and then suddenlystarted to declineat the same paceasthe growthtook place. In addition, according to the predictions, theworld productionhas to peak in around 2000. Hubbert`s mathematical modelof oil productionis based on a Gaussiancurve (Hubbertcurve), with symmetric rise, peak, and decline toward zero (Fig.1),which predictsthat the total amountof oil production,as a functionof time, followsa logistic curve.From this it followsthat the rateof oilis a derivative ofthe logistic functionof time..
On the basis ofdata ofoil productionin the past,and excludingexternal factors,such aslack of demand, the model predictsthe date ofmaximumoil productionfor oil fields,several oilfields, orthe whole region.This pointis called themaximum outputpeak.The periodafter the peakis calleddepletion.The schedulerate ofproductionfor a singleoilfield has abell shape: first,a gradualsteady growth inproduction, thenthe rapid growth,which is followed bya plateau (peak)and, finally, a steepdecline.
Whenthedeposits of oil are founded, the productionof oil is smallat first, because the requiredinfrastructureis notbuilt (at the timeHubbertlaid10 years from the beginning ofthe opening,before the start ofpumpingoil.Nowit is about6 years). As far aswellshave been drilled and more efficient equipment installed the productionincreases.At some pointthe peak outputis reached,which is impossible tosurpass even withthe improvedtechnology oradditionaldrilling.After, the peakoil productionis slow, but it steadilydecreases.After the peak, butbefore theoilfield is completelyexhausted, anotherimportant milestonecan be reachedwhen theextraction, transportationand processing ofa barrel of oilconsumed more energy than theamount of energy containedin the barrel.At this point, Hubbert argued, the oil production, in order to getmoreenergyis unjustified, and the fieldcan beneglected (Lanchester, 2007).
It should be notedthat originalwording ofHubbert has been referredto the “theoreticalunbounded domain”, and that themodel mustbe amendedifthere aresignificant artificialfactors (such aspolitical orrelated to the protection of the environment).
2. Overview of Predictions and Facts
As predicted, the oil productionin the U.S.peaked in1971,and has beendecreasing since that time.However, the world productionhas not reacheda maximum in2000. The proponents ofthe theoryofferthe explanation thatHubbert’smodeldid not account the oilembargoin 1973and 1979, made by OPEC, which reducedthe globaloil consumptionanddelayedpeak (Lanchester, 2007).
ASPO,the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, isthe community of scientistswhose goalis to estimatethe timing andconsequences ofpassing thepeakof globaloil and gas.The organizationwas foundedin 2000 by petroleum geologistColinCampbell. TheASPO includes scientistsfrom Australia, Austria, Denmark, China, Finland, France,Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway,Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerlandand the UK.Membersof associationappear in thedocumentaryfilmThe End of Suburbia. Deffeyesapplied thesame techniquesto the world’soil production.In the book«Hubbert’s Peak: The Impending Oil Shortage2»heclearly showsthat the peak ofworld oil productionwas reached in November 24, 2005.Later, hemovedthat date, but only by 16December of that year.Taking into account the fluctuations ofthe correctnessof this assessmentit will be clearin five or eight years (Mortishead, 2008).
Hubbert’stheoryis a constantsubject of discussion because of thepotential effects ofreducingoil production, and theconstant debateaboutenergy policy.
In 1975,The National Academy ofSciences ofthe United Statesrecognized thecorrectness of theoretical calculations, made by Hubbert.In the lastyears of lifeHubbert insistedthat the solar energywill come instead ofhydrocarbons. Optimistsbelieve thatthe oil production willgrowslowlyupto 2030. Jeremy Gilbert, the former BP (British Petroleum)chief engineer said: “Ifsomeone tellsyouthat Kuwait’soil reservesare 75 billionbarrels, he/shehas not even the slightestideaof howthese billionsare calculated”. The analysisreportsof the state-ownedenterprise Saudi Aramcohave shown thatthecountry’soil reserves are systematicallyoverestimated.It appears thatSaudi Arabia isclose to the depletionof oil resourcesmore than anyonecould think (Philips, 2003).
That`s why, it is not surprising that countries started to fight for oil.
Relationship between 11th of September and Peak Oil
1. Unknown version
If to analyze all the facts and details, it becomes obvious that the events, occurred on the 11th of September, and peak of oil are much related. Thus, some details should be gathered.
Cohen made up his own survey, according to which on the eve of the event Larry Silverstein, a Jewish American businessman leased the twin towers of the World Trade Center on July 24th, 2001.The terms of the lease were rather unusual. According to the agreement, he received the right to restore these buildings if they were destroyed.He immediately insured the building for $ 3.55 billion.The insurance was issued so that after the destruction, the court awarded him $ 4.55 billion, as the explosion of some of the buildings was considered as a separate attack.While there is a recovery, he pays no rent as determined by the contract. Every morning, Mr. Silverstein had breakfast at the restaurant “Windows on the World” on the top floor of one of the towers.However, the morning of September 11, 2001, he did not come back, as well as his daughter, who worked next door at the World Trade Center complex, which was also destroyed.
The other puzzle is Lovy Frank, the owner of Westfield America.In May 2001, Westfield paid $ 127 million for the 99-year lease of the stalls under the building towers of the World Trade Center. Full control over the retail commercial space would allow anyone to carry out the necessary work in his warehouse without the interference of outsiders. Lovy was a member ofthe GolaniBrigade, which destroyed thecivilianPalestinian populationduring the Arab-Israeli wars.On the September 11th, 2001 Lovy didn`t show up.
Who hassigned a decreeauthorizing theWTClease Silverstein?
EyzenbergLewis, the Head ofTransport Administrationof New York. All threeheld seniorpositions in theorganizationscalled Anti-Defamation Leagueand the UnitedJewishAppeal.
Whoconductedthe privatizationof stateWTCcomplex?
Ronald Lauder. Hewason the boardof directors of the NY Board of Privatization and lobbiedfor theprivatizationof WTCcomplex. Lauderis actively involvedin the activities ofthe following organizations:
– Conference ofPresidents of Major AmericanJewish Organizations.
-Jewish National Fund.
-The World Jewish Congress.
-The American JewishJoint Distribution Committee.
-Anti-Defamation League. Lauderalso financed theactivities of the MossadSchoolin Herzliya, Israel,where there is alsothe headquartersof theMossad.
Who isin charge ofsecurityat all threeairports where the terroristsboarded theplanes?
Huntsleigh USA,a subsidiary ofICTS International; ICTS International isowned byEzraHarel(died2003) and MenachemAtzmonu, bothIsraeli Jews. Under thestrict company’s supervision,supposedly19Arabswere ableto carry onboard aircraftcutting tools anda gun. ICTS was also responsible for airport security when Richard Reid or, the shoe bomber, boarded the plane (Cohen, 2001).
Whowas on the boardof AmericanFlight 11Earliness?
According to Cohen, DanielMark Levin, an IsraeliJew, whowas a member of the Israelispecialcommandoteams,engaged inthe fight againsthijackingand murder.First, theflight attendantBetty Ongpointed 9B as the place where the fighting started.Thenthe official versionwas changedto the fact thathe fighter was shot, and thenkilled.A conversationwith thestewardesson the ground controllerslasted23 minutes,but theinvestigation committee of September 11 attacksclassified the record,and signed uponly 4.5minutes availableto the public.
Who isin charge ofsecurityat theWTC?
Kroll Associates UK Ltd.
Who isrunning the KrollAssociates Company?
JeromeHauer. Jerome’s mother, RosaMuskatinHauer,is honorable Dean of theInstitute ofBeth Israelandan honorary president of the NewYork branch ofHadassah, an organization of Zion`s daughters.
Actually, this chain is very long. The only thing that became obvious out of the survey is that Al-Qaida group was just set up by someone, who needed the pretext to start the war on terror. What is more, the official version of the events is hardly to be proved. However, even if the act of terrorism was planned by Israel, for the U.S. it was much convenient to put all responsibility on Al-Qaida, as Israel doesn’t have oil.
Thus, the following conclusion can be made: we cannot be sure who was responsible for the events on the September 11th, whether it was the U.S. itself or not, however, we can be 100% sure that the events became very convenient for the U.S.
2. 09/11 who is responsible?
For a clearer understanding of what happened, it is necessary to understand the preconditions for the implementation of the September 11th events.According to the official version, the ultra-radical Islamic terrorist organization “Al Qaeda”, which was created during the stay of Soviet army in Afghanistan, is responsible for the 9/11events.After the Soviet withdrawal, the vector control was redirected to the United States.The U.S. government moved its commercial bench, called the Fed, and has led provocative foreign policy, aimed at conquest of other people’s resources and achieving the world domination under the guise of spreading democracy. The official motive of what happened is considered to be the presence of the U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia, the support of Israeli unwillingness to condemn the U.S. occupation of Palestine and the Lebanon War in 1982 (Cohen, 2001).
Moreover, there is an even more compromising version of what happened provided by the U.S. government. It tells about the involvement of the U.S. political elite in the events of 11th September 2001, the establishment of “Al Qaeda” and the adjustment of its activities, the work of American intelligence agencies themselves in order to create an opportunity to begin the so-called “war against terrorism”, which involves the expansion of spheres of influence to the east and conquest of new economic resources.
What is more, another version of the Jews involvement has appeared.
After analyzing all three versions it can be identified only one miserable, unwavering truth: because of the blind thirst for domination and resources, the government and the shadow elite of the United States ceased to value human life, and people are considered as nothing more than a bargaining chip to achieve the political goals.On that bloody day about 3,000 innocent people died, and even more people were killed in the frame of the “war on terrorism” policy.
Alternative Energy
Alternative fuelsare solid, liquidandgas fuels, which are theappropriatealternativesto traditional fuelsand are produced(extracted)from unconventionalsourcesand types of energy resources. Unconventionalsourcesand typesof energy resourcesare the raw materials plant, waste, solidcombustiblesubstance, other naturalandartificialsourcesand typesof energy resources, includingoil, gas,gas condensateandoil and gas exhausted,non-industrialvaluesandtechnologicalfields, heavy grades of oil, naturalbitumen,gas-saturatedwater,gas hydrates, etc., production(extraction)andprocessingof which are required by the application. In addition, the alternative energy can be the energy of sun, wind and ocean, which are starting to be used. It is believed that if humans start to use the above mentioned sources for their all power, there won`t be a need to produce oil at all. However, in order to use these types of energy fully, much time and efforts should be spend, that is why the above mentioned systems can be fully available in the future (Lanchester, 2007).
Conclusions
To sum up, the oil is considered to be the black gold. Thus, in the future, the paper money would be nothing as compared to oil, especially when the oil resources are reducing. It is not the coincidence that many conflicts, where the U.S. has taken part, started somewhere around 2000 year. According to the Hubbert predictions, the peak of the world oil resources had to be approximately in 2000. Everyone is aware that sooner or later it would happen. Thus, the September events took place in 2001, the Libyan Conflict is still not finished. In addition, the new Iraq conflict can be made up. What is more, there is evidence that the U.S. doesn’t take part occasionally in all conflicts between the countries rich for oil. Stating that the US aim is only humanitarian intervention, the country imposes imperialism. That is why, it is not matter who is the author of the September act of terrorism, in any case, the U.S. would had been taken the perfect situation to start the war, the war for oil.